Before we get to a new poll published by the Vocero that flips the issues (yet again) of Puerto Rico’s political identity and colonial relationship with the United States, which has essentially owned the island since 1898 (yes, the US Army landed on the shores of Puerto Rico to win a war against Spain), you need to know a few things:
- Politics in Puerto Rico are, plain and simple, just messed up right now. Try to stay with me here. You have an unpopular Republican and pro-statehood Governor (Luis Fortuño) who has been unable to turn the island’s economy around in his four years in office because the previous administration screwed it up too (BIG TIME), but still has a decent shot at re-election because the guy he is running against (Alejandro García Padilla) is well, not exciting, and basically has issues himself (you will see why later in this post). Then you have other parties (like the group that wants independence) trying to stay relevant in the age of social media and 24/7 news cycles.
Puerto Rican Governor Luis Fortuño
- Another way to look at it is like this: Fortuño is to Barack Obama (considering Puerto Rico took billions of dollars of federal stimulus money) as what García Padilla is to Mitt Romney (going after the incumbent in a clunky way). But the fact is that Fortuño is a Republican and García Padilla is a Democrat. Then imagine if the United States were holding a vote about what type of government they would like to become the very same day that they are voting for President. THAT is Puerto Rico this year, where gubernatorial candidates are not only running against each other, but their respective parties and others (the pro-statehood PNP and the pro-commonwealth-status quo-enhanced commonwealth-whatever PPD, and the pro-independence PIP) are also pushing a vote for Puerto Rico’s political status issue, an issue that has dominated Puerto Rican politics like the elephant in the room for decades.
Alejandro García Padilla
- And remember, NO MATTER what the Puerto Rican people decide in terms of political status, the CRAZY THING is that the damn vote is non-binding, which means the US Congress will still have to take action on the will of their own citizens and not even take the vote into account (another complication). Now, Fortuño, who endorsed Romney, is banking on Romney becoming President so that if Fortuño wins re-election and the political status vote favors statehood, Fortuño will have a friend in the White House to push statehood for Puerto Rico. And García Padilla is of course pulling for Obama to win, but Obama has already gone on record last year to say that if the status plebiscite is close and there is not an overwhelming majority for one option, Congress won’t act.
- So basically, Puerto Rico is trying to put this whole political status question behind them (it has been going on for like decades since the 60s) so that the island can move forward and actually achieve progress economically, socially, and politically. But since we tried to explain all the craziness that is going on right now, you can see how critical the 2012 elections are for the island.
Which brings us to the Vocero poll. The poll asked the following question of Puerto Ricans: If the plebiscite were held today, what would you vote for: statehood, enhanced commonwealth or independence?
The results reported by the newspaper conclude the following: 41% for statehood, 37% for enhanced commonwealth, 4% for independence, 4% wouldn’t vote and 14% are undecided. So, at halftime, we have a tie, people, yet again! Why does that not surprise us since all the previous plebiscites never showed a clear majority (and also never got acted upon, so why are we discussing this again?)
What is so surprising about this poll has to the do with the issue of enhanced commonwealth. In 2008, this idea of an enhanced commonwealth that would define a more clearer non-colonial and non-territorial relationship with the United States was the status option that the PPD party was promoting. But when the PPD lost to Fortuño and the PNP, a push from the traditionalists of the PPD who favored to maintain the “status quo” began, culminating in García Padilla pushing for it as well. All of a sudden, enhanced commonwealth was no longer popular in 2010 as it was in 2008. In fact, that option of enhanced commonwealth was polled at 6% while the status quo was at 39% and was actually the top choice over statehood by 4%. Now, all that is out the window and García Padilla, the guy everyone in the PPD is banking on beating Fortuño, looks like the guy who placed the wrong bet on the wrong status option. Oops. Our guess is that he will react quickly to this revelation. Or will he? Remember when we said he was like Romney?
Other poll findings are just as interesting. Here are some of our favorites:
- There is more statehood support outside the San Juan metro area (44%) than there is in the San Juan metro area (35%).
- Voters 18-49 are choosing statehood over enhanced commonwealth 44%-34%.
- 11% of people who say they are PPD would vote for statehood while 11% who say they are PNP would vote for enhanced commonwealth. Huh?
- 18% of the San Juan metro area is undecided while 17% of those 35-49 are undecided as well.
This has only just begun. Looks like there will be another close vote and who knows where Congress will go with this. Status becomes the issue while the island does not progress. Classic Puerto Rican Politics 101.
No hay quien nos salve……..( Esta sobre el tapete la suprema definicion ,Yankees o Puertoriqueños ..Palabras del Maestro Albizu Campos) y esa es la reaccion de nuestro pueblo? no existe la verguenza ni se le da valor a la Patria..y esto es lo que sucede en un Pueblo donde la dignidad se compra con Dinero.
Amén, hermano
“Insanity is doing same thing over and over again and expecting different results.” Albert Einstein
That is so true, so true it hurts. Thanks, my friend! Where do we go now?
As I have said several times before, Congress will not make a decision concerning Puerto Rico’s status unless a clear line has been drawn. And as shown by the latest polls, no clear line is being drawn. You can pretty much assume the voters who are for statehood or commonwealth are die hard followers of their respective parties so trying to persuade them would be fruitless. But the 14% who are undecided, I believe, as I also stand in that category, are just waiting for a better alternative. As in a clearly explained independent status like a true free association with the U.S. that guarantees U.S. citizenship first and foremost. The rest of the relationship with the U.S. needs to be written in a way that most ordinary citizens understand so they know exactly what they are voting for come November. I truly believe this what those (me) 14% undecided are waiting for. Otherwise the tried and true, safe and comfortable commonwealth status will again prevail. And Puerto Rico will have once again lost an opportunity for real change.
Bruce, that is so SPOT ON, hermano. So SPOT ON!
The commonwealth will win by default with “yes”, because the first question is SO VAGUE! Instead of saying, ” Do you want to keep the present UNINCORPORATED territorial status of Puerto rico?” NO! Instead, it will say; Do you want to maintain the present territorial relationship (with US)?
Many statehooders are afraid that Congress may interpret it as a vote for seperation. (Despite statehood winning the second round) The fear is that if Congress refuses to grant statehood, the commonwealth, having been rejected on question one, won’t be re- offered, Congress will have no option left, but to grant independence.
As a result, many statehooders will vote “yes” as in wanting to stay with US, problem is, Congress will count “yes” as a call for NO CHANGE.
Luis; the present status has been around long enough that most people here know the difference between statehood and keeping the status quo. I personally believe the question is clear and very few people will be confused. Their are always a few who will claim they did not understand the question even though it has been in the news and will have been talked about for almost a year come November. Least of the confusion will come from statehooders.
Que mas necesita el 14% de los indecisos..(Bruce R. Harris included)? el ELA no a progresado,la falta de educacion es alarmante(el gobierno no presta atencion a las escuelas y pretende subir las cuotas a los de la Universidad(haceselo mas dificil al que si quiere estudiar)Las drogas acaban con nuestra juventud,el crimen pasional en aumento(tambien reflejo de la falta de educacion )Padres matando a sus hijos,secuestros,invaciones resideciales,tiroteos de autos en marcha,representates y legisladores en el gobierno presos,$100 millones usados por el gobierno PNP para un systema de internet pera las escuelas. que nunca se termino de establecer y por lo tanto se perdieron.El partido PPD no ofrece ninguna alternativa (por que tambien le roban al pueblo y hacen mal uso de los fondos) Me pregunto yo Por que estan indecisos ese 14% + Bruce R. Harris! La Patria es valor y sacrificio…. SI SACRIFICIO!
This is all Congress’s fault! US has spent too much on PR to let it go….They are nervous( or don’t have the balls to tell a 15% hispanic America about refusing on granting statehood, yet refuse to clarify the options. Congress will never admit tha….no wait, they HAVE told the PPD that Enhanced commonwealth as the PPD wants it, a type of free association that’s quasi independent, yet completely part of ,and in union with the US(whattusay willis?) Is UNCONSTITUTIONAL. Congress went further and stated that permanent union and citizenship are only possible under statehood/incorporated territory. Of course Congress KNEW the PPD would tell Puerto Ricans on the island something different, but as long as PR doesn’t speak english, they will never know congress’s true stand, because PRcans won’t believe what the PPD/PNP/PIP says & vice versa. They only believe what THEIR favorite party tells them.They will never agree to a majority.
That’s why congress told PR, ” get in agreement, then see us”.
This is ,and will continue be their excuse to never act.
The debate among statehooders continues on whether Question one is a fatal error for the statehood movement.
Question one asks…” do you want to maintain the current territorial relashionship” (yes) (no)
Question two…..asks….Which PERMANENT status do you choose?
Statehood
Independence
Soveregn commonwealth (Free Association aka associated independent republic in disguise)
You would think that ELA soberano/sovereign commonwealth is the problem,with its deceptive use of “commonwealth” with the usual permanent union with US/w citizenship. Instead of the fact that its actually a repackaged free association with independence.
NO, the problem is that question one is too vague. It does not explain the difference between an Incorporated territory with permanent union and citizenship guaranteed under the constitution,with or without statehood, and the PRESENT UNINCORPORATED territory.
The current unincorporated commonwealth remains part of the US under the will of Congress, thanks to the territorial clause.
Why are the independentistas so willing to work with the statehooders? Why do they support this referendum? Some say that the PIP wants to prove once and for all that Congress will reject statehood, so,….the PIP will vote “no” to help statehooders overthrow commonwealth. Then the PIP, and Ruben Berrios will sit back, sip their soda, eat popcorn as they watch a horror movie starring statehood’s massacre and death in congress.
This the PIP believes, will cause many PR’s to rebel in anger over their rejection, joining the independence movement. But why not just vote with the PNP for statehood? Giving statehood at least 55-60% victory? Because PIP fears Congress may say yes(after heavy conditions)
This is where Question one comes in….many statehooders, such as former Governor Pedro Rosello, Carlos Romero Barcello, the Blanco Pi family at wapa 680 radio, fear that this 2 tier vote is a SETUP by Congress to finally grant PR independence under the guise of democracy. By overwhelmingly voting “NO” to the “corrent territorial(state like)relationship”. Puerto Ricans may be setting themselves up to a statehood rejection. Now, since they ALSO rejected the current commonwealth, the PIP woould go to the UN, and tell the world;……Puerto Ricans voted down commonwealth for statehood.USA said NO!
Therefore, I urge the UN to pass a resolution condeming USA for denying PR self determination and pressure them to grant independence.
Luis, gracias mil por sus excelentes comentarios. Thank you so much for all your points!
Thanks, as I wrote “Ideal scenario for PIP”, I was not aware you had already answered! LOL!
The Ideal scenario for PIP…….
54% vote “NO” to terriory / NO wins question one thanks to joint Independence and statehood advocates.
Statehood gets 46-49%
Independence gets the usual 4-7%
ELA soberano orphaned by ppd , gets .05-3%
“YES” PPD will urge followers to vote “yes” for “continuing present territorial relationship”to”later vote no”( after getting strokes and anurisms insisting PR is not a colony!!!!)……..38-45%
Since no permanent status won, statehood is a loser again. Even if it gets 49 to 50%, even if its the most vote getter.
What congress WILL notice is that 54% REJECTED COMMONWEALTH!!
Congress may then feel enboldened to declare statehood off the table.Take the old commonwealth off the table. Congress may as a last ditch test offer them incorporation into the us, as an incorporated territory on a path to statehood with full federal taxes,English instruction, no olympic or Beauty peageants. If PR accepts, Congress may surprise them with statehood.
BUT,MOST LIKELY, PUERTO RICANS WILL REBEL, FIGHT FOR SPANISH IN SCHOOLS,FIGHT FOR THEIR OLIMPIC GOLD, in other words PR just got set up!! For independence….by their own stubburn nationalism, too great for the safety of the union.
I’m pro statehood, always write on the”EL VOCERO/politica” under “discuss” as Luis Arroyo, I often end with the following line…….
“Puerto Rico Virgin Islands*51* The Coqui State”……
But I’m also a realist. Reagan is gone. Bob Dole is gone. Every Republican figure of good stature that respected PR statehood is gone. Luis Fortuño endorsed Mitt Romney, despite Newt Gingrich fighting to push PR statehood forward in the 1990’s. Fortuño stabbed Gingrich in the back. Romney is just another neutral spineless robot who ” wants PR to decide first”(lick finger and see where the wind blows!) I don’t. Blame Gingrich for not wanting anything else to do with PR, at the moment.
I think the problem lies with the fact that the current GOP in the US is more worried about deporting Mexican immigrants than helping Puerto Ricans, who are US citizens. There is really no real candidate out there right now. The limbo will continue, there is no way a GOP-backed Congress will put PRico as a priority.
But I am truly honored to have you share your thoughts here and for visiting my blog. I just want an open and honest dialogue about this and move beyond the “politiquería.” Gracias mil.
I’m sorry Luis but I really do not see congress seeing a No vote as a No vote for statehood also. The reason why it is a two part referendum is to remove the voters who want to keep the status quo from the second vote and allow a vote be taken by only those who want change. And will this finally put the PIP and PNP parties together unlike previous referendums where the PIP and PPD always side together? Absolutely. If a majority vote NO on the first vote which I believe they will, then congress will be forced to seriously consider the results of the second vote.
I have personally heard Mitt Romney has said that he is in favor of and will push for Puerto Rico being a state.
Yes, he is.
100% pure Island Made
Regardless of what you all have commented,the fact is that Puerto Rico will become the 51st State. Face the Music (Salsa),if you don’t like that don’t visit 51 and if you live in 51 and don’t like it move to Cuba,Venezuela or the moon or you can have a spot of tea when you move to England.Borincanos don’t be afraid! and to all others don’t be afraid of the Borincanos. 51 will be a Island state with with powerful pride. Don’t “Playa” hate and when I say “playa” I mean Beach,hahaha. I can hear the music now, the “JAWS” Music, “51” is coming. Raise your hand if you are Scared. Muchas Thanks!
It is not as simple as you suggest. Right now, statehood is not even going to win November plebiscite. But good luck!
No offense to anyone living in Puerto Rico but what I find is many here do not like to follow the rules. My prediction come November is that many of the voters who vote YES on the first question to maintain the status quo will then answer the second question for enhanced commonwealth even when they are not suppose to. This will blur the final results and again no clear winner will be seen. Hopefully the voter will have to show one of the election organizers their answer first before the second part of the referendum is made available. This is just my prediction.
I think it is a very good and strong prediction, Bruce.
That’s a good point. The PPD, depite insisting on “YES”,are insecure on whether “no” might still win. So….breaking the rules and voting Yes+ Soveregn Commonwealth prevents statehood from getting a supermajority on the second tier vote.
But…….what if the CE/elections commission throws these out as “disqualified ballots” ,along with the few who vote “yes”+Statehood? The vast majority of remaining legal ballots would be “no+statehood/”no”+ independence/”no”+soveregn Commonwealth, and finally the “yes” alone (correctly), Giving “no”+statehood a narrow win.
But we shall see. Its only April, and the PPD will probably wise up and insist on a “yes” and blank on the second.
I want Puerto Rico to be a stat SO BADLY i hate ignorant people stating how puerto ricans are foreigners and i think this will allow economic prosperity (BTW born in New york)
The PPD has already made it extremely clear that they want their supporters to vote Yes on Question 1, and leave Question 2 blank. Garcia-Padilla and other pro commonwealth stalwarts like Rafael Hernandez Colon have also repeatedly stated that sovereign commonwealth = independence. See these 2 articles from Caribbean Business regarding this issue:
http://www.caribbeanbusinesspr.com/news03.php?nt_id=67972&ct_id=1
http://www.caribbeanbusinesspr.com/prnt_ed/news02.php?nw_id=7051&ct_id=90
I support statehood 100% however I am not entirely thrilled with how this referendum has been worded and set up. I feel that instead of asking about status choices we should ask Puerto Ricans if they desire the full rights, obligations, and benefits of US citizenship and if the vote was in favor (which it obviously would be as even the PPD supports the right to vote for the President and things like that) then ask them to choose between full statehood and becoming a directly incorporated territory in a second referendum held separately.
Chris, I have read tons of comments about this and what you wrote is one of the most insightful comments I have read in a while here. THIS is how we should frame the vote. Agreed! Brilliant suggestion.
Thank you! Both Hector Ferrer of the PPD and Carlos Romero Barcelo of the NPP have proposed similar ideas to my proposal and I took my basic blueprint from them.
It seems that the biggest problem with this referendum is that Puerto Ricans keep saying they are “confused” by the various status options. So we need to avoid that entirely. There is too much focus on the various status options which are very confusing and not enough focus on citizenship rights.
ALL US citizens should be allowed to vote for the President and to elect full voting representation in the US Senate and US House of Representatives. Both the NPP and PPD agree to this. The biggest defender of the commonwealth status, Rafael Hernandez Colon, is a big supporter of the movement to abolish to Electoral College and institute national popular vote for the President. The PPD has also pushed for a US Senate resident commissioner as well, I believe Washington DC has a “shadow senator” so it could possibly happen one day.
I have stated several times on this forum that the leadership of Puerto Rico has done a poor job in explaining exactly what each status would mean for Puerto Ricans. But Julito has assured me this information will be disseminated in time so the voters would have a clear understanding as to what they are voting on. I guess you had a change of heart Julito and now find it would be a better idea if the questions concerning status were laid out in simplistic terms. Gee, I wonder where I mentioned that before?!
As for the popular versus Electoral College vote, our founding fathers all agreed it would be best not to put such power in the hands of the people because they, the voters, were not informed enough to make an intelligent decision. And people tend to vote on a whim and emotions take over. As in anyone but him mentality. Look at Venezuela as an example. Or Hitler. And you proved this point Chris when you said many Puerto Ricans are confused by the various options. Few voters will do the necessary research to make intelligent decisions. That is as true today as it was back when our founding fathers chose the Electoral College over the popular vote.
Breaking News from Puerto Rico, USA ~ Alejandro García Padilla, has demanded Puerto Rico, USA be declared under a State of Emergency 7/26/12 (Based on Puerto Rico’s – Crime Wave)
Puerto Rico should have already been 51 state of United States! The chaos, that has been going on in the island for decades, since governor, Luis Munoz Marin, has giving a fraud political contributions to the island! Thus, which means, the enhanced Commonwealth, that has been running the island for a long periods
Puerto Rico should have already been 51 state of United States! The chaos, that has been going on in the island for decades, since governor, Luis Munoz Marin, has giving a fraud political contributions to the island! Thus, which means, the enhanced Commonwealth, that has been running the island for a long periods of time, ruined the islands economy! The island’s economic issues has never been resolved! The issue of pushing Puerto Rico to grow economically, to enhance a better future, and to expand for progress, has failed tremendously because of their fraud, conspicuous, political game, that has been going on for years! Another thing that is mainly a real problem of Puerto Rico, is top crime! Department of justice and the supreme
Independence for Puerto Pico