A series of new polls this month have been released and the news does not look good for Puerto Rican pro-statehood and Republican governor Luis Fortuño, who is in the incumbent in a November election that will determine both his fate as the island’s leader as well as take a temperature of where Puerto Rico stands in its political relationship with the United States, which invaded the island in 1898 and still maintains it as a territory.
El Diario in New York published the latest El Nuevo Día numbers of an island poll where Fortuño is up against pro-Commonwealth candidate Alejandro García Padilla and pro-Independence candidate Juan Dalmau. Here are the poll results:
38% for García Padilla
30% for Fortuño
4 % for Dalmau
13% said they will not vote.
12% are undecided.
In the race for Resident Commissioner (Puerto Rico’s non-voting representative of the US Congress), the results are as follow:
Resident Commissioner Pedro Pierluisi (a Democrat but also a member of Fortuño’s pro-statehood party) got 39% in the poll.
Rafael Cox Alomar, who is running with García Padilla on the PPD (Popular Party) ticket, got 32%.
Pro-Independence candidate Juan Manuel Mercado got 4%.
El Nuevo Día also ran a poll regarding the island’s political status vote, which will be held the same day as the race for Governor and Resident Commissioner, and this is what it published. This is a two-step vote, with the first vote asking island voters to choose if they would wish to keep the island’s current commonwealth status or change it, and the second vote asking them to choose their preference (statehood, enhanced commonwealth, independence). Here are those results:
Part 1
50% of voters chose to maintain the current territorial relationship with the United States.
29% of voters wanted to change the relationship with the United States.
The rest for now are either undecided or not voting.
Part 2
42% of voters chose the enhanced commonwealth option.
32% of voters chose statehood.
3% of voters chose independence.
The rest for now are either undecided or not voting.
These poll numbers, at least for the political status questions, provide a marked shift from the El Vocero polls last month, which had statehood wining by a slim margin. In that poll 41% of Puerto Rican voters chose statehood, as opposed to 37% for enhanced commonwealth, but according to El Nuevo Día, enhanced commonwealth has a double-digit margin of preference now.
Thanks for posting the poll. My numbers were off,but the results about the same, a PPD victory and an embarrasing defeat for statehood. In fact, statehood support falls from 46% in 1998, to 32% this should be the deathblow. (Oh well)
Like I said, I’m. For 51, but” it ain’t happenin”. I think independence will help stateside PR’s get their act toghether, since the republic of Puerto Rico will no longer be “open” to send los jovenes”tecates a los abuelos en la isla” I believe this is a main reason Puerto Ricans are the least successfull of Hispanic Americans. As long as they all think they can return to Borinquen anytime, they won’t plant roots and establish serious communities in the states, like the Cubans,jews,colombians have.
Speak for yourself, I know TONS OF SUCCESSFUL Boricuas on the island and the mainland.
Fair enough .but it seems most of the ones (PR business owners and professionals) I run into here in Newark were all born en la isla/on the island. Many of us,including myself , blue collar, tend to be the ones born here in the states.
The colonial situation that the northamerican empire has imposed on Puerto Rico and the Puerto Rican People has most definately affected Puerto Rican generations both in the nation as well as abroad in the U.S. However, the change from a temporary colony to a permanent one (which is what statehood would be) would forever stigmatize what is left of the Puerto Rican Nationality. Keep in mind, that you can not have an ethnic group without a ethnic home. Whether or not they agree with what the government of their home of ethnic origin does politically, people of Jewish heritage have Israel to look up to as a nation of their own, run by their own. This applies to all of the different ethnic groups in the U.S. ie: Italians, Poles, Germans, Chilenos, Frenchmen, Greeks, Guatemalens, Swedes, Coasta Ricans, Irish, and others. Even with all the problems in Mexico & Cuba, people living in the U.S. from those two countries have many success stories because they are inspired by their heritage and the country they came from. Cubans here in the U.S. often speak of a Cuba before 1959 and they are proud of that era as well as hope for better times in Cuba one day soon. Just as with Mexicans in the U.S. who hope for a Mexico without the drug cartel problems and an economy that can provide for all Mexicans to live in their country and not have to go abroad. Puerto Ricans in Puerto Rico as well as in the U.S. need to be able to see a Puerto Rico of their fathers that is prosperous, economically viable and that is politically sovereign which means a Puerto Rico governed by Puerto Ricans with absolute power over everything in Puerto Rico and not by some foriegn parliament/congress in the U.S. or in Madrid. It is very hard to be successful anywhere when you carry around a stigma and Puerto Ricans did not have that stigma until that awful day, that day of infamy, in July of 1898.
Truth.
No Aloysius, statehood is not a colony. If you have full voting rights to include voting for the President then a territory becomes a full fledged voting member of the union with equal rights and responsibilities that goes with the union membership.
I just love people who spread bad shit. It just makes them look stupid.
Now how the hell do we change the minds of the people who want this colonial status…its getting old and doesn’t do anymore
Julito,
I wonder if you’d be interested in writing an article for contratiempo magazine in Chicago about the upcoming elections. Our June issue will be dedicated to the upcoming elections in Mexico, the U.S., Puerto Rico and Venezuela. As you probably know we have a large Puerto Rican population in Chicago. Would you be interested in writing something for us? Our magazine is a Spanish language one, but you can subimit in English and we translate it. We have a distribution of 5,000 print copies, plus Web, Facebook, Twitter and Issuu. Check out our website (http://contratiempo.net) and let me know what you think.
Gerardo Cardenas
Editorial Director
contratiempo
Wow, sería un honor. Y lo puedo escribir en español. Aquí para servirle.
Julito
juliorvarela@gmail.com
Geez, Puerto Rico. Get it together. Statehood or GTFO.
There is another option antodav; A free association with the U.S. Problem is it has yet to be defined by the leadership here in Puerto Rico so the people will know what it is they are voting for. This option might very well satisfy both moderate commonwealthers and independencias. Just won’t know until someone from PR puts some ink to paper.
The thing is that Free Association is a bilateral pact made by 2 independent nations. Its a treaty where a smaller country agrees to let a larger country take care of its defense, currency(US Dollar). In return, the larger country gets to use the smaller for strategic purposes.
As an example, Cuba was a US protectorate(free association) . The US would protect Cuba, in return, the US got Guantanamo. After Fidel Castro, the US “punished” Cuba with the embargo.
Puerto Rico as a free Associated/soveregn “Commonwealth” would have its own national citizenship. No more US citizenship for those born after “PR independence day”
No more permanent union with the US,since PR is a soveregn nation. Puerto Ricans would become foregners and subject to witch hunts and deportations(those born after the seperation) but to average Americans, we’d become the newest “illegals!”
Most PPD voters want Permanent political Union with US.
Most PPD voters want permanent constitutionally protected US citizenship in perpetuity(generation to generation)
A majority of PPD voters even go as far as ask for the US presidential vote.
This is why the PPD plays games with “punishment votes” and calling status referendums “oportunity to punish statehood governors.”
This is why I will never see a status referendum by “Popular” Democrats, because they, (ppd) made a monster with this “punishment vote thing”
They know that a “punishment vote against the PPD”, will be a statehood victory, again, to punish the self named “popular”Democratic Party for a change.
We think that is changing with the ALAS group which is gaining momentum every day.
Thanks for the pointers on Free Association Luis. This is exactly why someone needs to draw up a rough draft of what an Enhanced Commonwealth (Free Association) would look like. No one really knows. So come November do not expect many voters to select this option. The outcome will most likely end up the same as past referendums; about 50/50 for statehood and remain the same commonwealth.
This is not surprising. There’s that old saying….you can dress up a pig/put lipstick on a pig…..at the end, its still a pig. The US has made Puerto Rico physically the most modern 1st world society in Latin America. Being poor in PR is the same as the states, you still have your car(s), PS3s/microsoft XBox/Ipod-mp3s.
But PR culturally is still a “pig”,while the US is a “thorobred horse”. The analogies mean nothing, just demonstrating the cultural diffrences politically between north European society, which encourages individualism,and independent thinking. Independent thinking allows you to seperate important issues that are larger than the current unpopular politician.
Contrast this with the Hispanic society,never democratic either in Spain,nor the colonies. This individualism never developed, big goovernment is embraced,and politicians are seen as the all fixing geniuses.
This is another reason PR will never be a state.
The “punishment vote against EVERYTHING fortuño likes” ,including the defeat of statehood demonstrates yet again why America refuses to force english onto PR. Why won’t they? They have all the power to do so under the territorial clause.
My friends, my belief is that Congress knows that the more fluent and literate in english Puerto Ricans become, they will read past the lies of the PPD and vote statehood. Don’t want them as a state? Keep them speaking spanish!
Fortuño will go down for doing the right thing.The previous 2 administrations hired over 20,000 new state workers, massively bloating the government with most of those new workers unessesary family and friends. As the goverment neared bankrupcy, governor Acevedo Villa’s PDP party concluded that 30,000 workers had to be let go, and services cut. With polls showing Fortuño winning, depriving Gov. Villa of a second term coupled with federal charges pending, outgoing Governor Villa decided to let the NEXT administration, the pro statehood PNP/republicans and Gov Elect Luis Fortuño lay off the 30,000,so as to use it to the PDPs advantage,by portraying Gov Fortuño as heartlessly firing “family dads in this recession”
The PDP plan worked! Fortuño is trailing at the polls, accused by PR’s anti PNPP and anti PIP(but very pro Popular Democrat)party media as wanting to fire everyone.
They will be bamboozled by the leftist PR media into “firing” Fortuño, returning the very same popular Democrats who overhired in the FIRST place. Not just that, but Alejandro Garcia Padilla has promised to rehire all 30,000,spend more on goverment programs!!! They will also vote tomaintain the colonial status that the very PDP claimed never existed….to spite Fortuño and the statehooders.
There’s where statehood dies. Americans are aware that Puerto rican voters are incapable of seperating something as large as the status issue,from petty individual politicians. In the states, its common for the voters to kick out politicians,yet still pass whatever iniciatives those outgoing politicians championed. This is because Anglo voters can seperate the person from the issues. Puerto Ricans can’t do that ….if you want statehood,you MUST vote PNP.
Want ELA?,you MUST vote PPD.
Want Independence? You MUST vote PIP.
PLUS, YOU MUST VOTE AGAINST ANY LAW/ISSUE/STATUS IF THE POLITICIAN IS NOT OF THE SAME PARTY AS YOURS.
This is why, despite the vast majority of PDP voters wanting permanent union with the USA, wanting the Presidential Vote,permanent US citizenship,THEY WILL still vote for the newly seperatist led(cox Alomar/Crmen Yulin)PDP. They will reject statehood because their PDP party wants them to see statehood as “Luis Fortuño”.
America will never allow a state that will contaminate America with this 3rd world populist messianic view of Politicians,especially with Obama coming close to this.
Excellent post Luis. I believe your claims are well validated. Latin governments do tend to favor the group rather than individualism the way anglo-saxon governments do. Teaching individualism allows each of us to realize our own unique qualities. I posted something earlier on this topic.
I do have to take exception to your thoughts on how Congress should force english on Puerto Ricans though. I believe this decision should be made by Puerto Ricans. Again though, as I have said before, being bilingual only serves to open so many more doors. So why wouldn’t parents want that for their children? Unfortunately what I hear is that english is not a part of the culture here and learning it is resisted by so many. Even the Education Secretary here opposes english in school. I just get the uneasy feeling that so many here are still fighting the Spanish-American war.
“A good leader takes the people where they want to go. A great leader takes the people where they need to go.”
So do we have any great leaders here in Puerto Rico?
And as for associating a particular status with a party is so ridiculous. It only serves to pigeon hole the voters. Why can’t we separate status from the party? Why can’t I have democratic or republican beliefs and still choose whatever status I want? You truly hit the nail on the head with this one Luis.
Thanks.
The UNITED STATES OF AMERICA has a better economy than any latin country in the world. If Puerto Rico becomes a state then they can share in that prosperity. The secret to doin well in the U.S. is to get a 4 year college degree or go to a trade school. Then after that you can work for someone or start your own business. No guarantees, but this is a solid plan. Also, live below your means. Thats it, its that simple.
Does El Nuevo Dia ever publish the full results of their polls? I’m a communications PhD student and I would love to see the crosstabs and methodology fo these surveys.
Great question! I have been unable to find them, but you should contact END directly to see. ElNuevoDia.com
Puerto Rico has never been in a “permanent union” with the United States. It’s all fancy word play to get the Populares fans to vote for them. If they had told them straight up,” oh hey we’re still a territory with half the benefits and rights of other citizens, and still under the territorial clause of the constitution”, then they wouldn’t vote for them. Why? Because the truth is ugly. The Supreme Court defines PR as PERTAINING to but, NOT A PART of the United States. Your car pertains to you, and you have all the papers to show it, but is it really in a union with you? No. Life would be difficult without a car yes, but PR to the USA is less of a car and more of a burden. People need to stop thinking so biased and do some research on all the alternatives. Statehood wouldn’t automatically make us lose our culture, although it COULD (Look at how 90% of Hawaiians don’t speak Hawaiian) and Independence or “Free Association” wouldn’t automatically mean 3rd world status, loss of all benefits, citizenship, and social security etc, USA has a Social Security treaty with Italy, was Italy ever a territory ? No but many of it’s people settled between the States and Italy so they did this to make life easier for everyone. Same can go for PR. and of course PR could model the economies (NOT copy 110%) but model is the key word here, other successful small independent countries (Monaco, Singapore, Lichtenstein, Bahamas). People want to throw in excuses and say those countries and their peoples work ethics are SO different from Puerto Ricans that it would be impossible and only want us to be compared to poor countries to scare people off from the idea. But I say why can’t we be like them? Last time I checked we are all human beings, with brains, skills, and potential to do anything we set our minds too. We already have the advantage of technology and pharmaceuticals and somewhat comfy way of life because of our association with the US but we can never fully bring out it’s maximum potential without sovereignty which neither statehood nor la ELA can provide because we will continue to be subject to the USA’s laws. Sure with statehood we get voting reps in congress , but what good will our voting reps be if they bring up legislation to genuinely help Puerto Rico, and the rest of congress outvotes them? 2 senators against 100 others who still don’t completely see us as equals despite all PR has contributed to this country. Don’t get me wrong, i’m not ungrateful to the U.S for the things it has helped us with, nor is there any animosity like most people like to stereotype people who think like me. However I do think that after 100+ years it’s time for Puerto Rico to move out of Uncle Sam’s basement ,and step out the welfare line , and onto the world stage so we can participate and act in the global market. We no longer have exclusive access to American goods like we used to, that was the main benefit of the Commonwealth, but times have changed and China is now the most favored nation. Can PR compete with China? Heck, half our souvenirs are made there, Jajaja dime tu.
Pretty insightful response. Thanks for sharing.
Insightful?! What, PRicans don’t know they can’t vote for the President? And if they knew they wouldn’t vote for the Populares! This is one of the biggest complaints PRicans have under the current status. So I have to throw down the bullshit flag on both Orlando S and you Julito. This alone invalidates the rest of Orlando’s un-insightful.
“We no longer have exclusive access to American goods like we used to, that was the main benefit of the Commonwealth” Orlando S
Huh??? Isn’t this another complaint PRicans have concerning the present arrangement, that ONLY U.S. goods are accessible, even though these goods do come from China via the U.S.
If Puerto Rico becomes independent it will immediately be prey to destabilizing factions to seize power. The rich will leave our Borinquen and leave the rest of us to fend for ourselves when the s— hits the fan. It is easy to be idealistic when you have money and alternatives. For most Puerto Ricans, it is a scary gamble.
If that is your case for statehood, it is a bit weak and illogical. If money leaves the island, money will come in from different sources.
Julito is a graduate of Harvard and lives in Boston Ana. That alone validates your point about the rich elites being able to leave the island while the rest of the people will be left to defend for themselves. Independents have no economic plan, just pride and bravado. Leaving PRico as a Commonwealth or becoming a state are the best options for struggling families who are looking for some amount of stability in their lives. To jump into Independence without a real plan or strong leadership to guide the transition is just plain nuts! A dream with a realistic plan is one thing, but just acting on a dream only is what children do.